SEC/US wins 4 or more charges against Binance
13
Ṁ1228
2031
90%
chance

SEC has charged Binance with 13 different offenses, including operating an unlicensed securities exchange. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/highlights-sec-complaint-against-crypto-exchange-binance-2023-06-05/

Resolves YES if the SEC/US Gov't wins >=4 of the 13 charges it filed against Binance, or if Binance settles with terms that indicate a substantial concession, for example, a payout greater than $40 million and an agreement to not sell to US consumers, or something.

Factbox: Highlights from SEC complaint against crypto exchange Binance
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Monday accused the world’s largest crypto exchange, Binance, and its founder Changpeng Zhao, of operating an “elaborate scheme to evade U.S. federal securities laws.”
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if Binance settles with terms that indicate a substantial concession

I assume (and have bet Yes accordingly) that a consolidated deal with the federal government which dismisses the civil lawsuits (SEC, CFTC) in favor of criminal ones (DOJ) constitutes "substantial concession" regardless of the fine print on which government agencies are listed on top of the stipulated order.

@patio11 Absolutely, this makes sense to me. Will edit the description accordingly.

https://manifold.markets/ian/sec-wins-3-or-more-charges-in-case

SEC wins 3 or more charges in case against Coinbase
26% chance. SEC has charged Coinbase with 5 different offenses, including operating an unregistered securities exchange, and offering unregistered securities to the public. https://www.sec.gov/litigation/complaints/2023/comp-pr2023-102.pdf, https://slate.com/technology/2023/06/coinbase-binance-sec-c…

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