Will a convicted felon win the 2024 presidential election?
Plus
81
Ṁ10kresolved Nov 14
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
"Felon" is usually reserved for reserved for people who have been both convicted of a felony and sentenced, which e.g. does not currently apply for Trump, though his sentencing is currently set for ~11 July.
Potential arb here against the general election markets: if you assume Trump will be "a felon" by the 2024 election's completion, P(felon becomes POTUS) should be strictly-if-marginally greater than P(Trump becomes POTUS), and if you assume the opposite the odds should be extremely low. As of writing P(Trump becomes POTUS) is hovering around 53% on the main appropriate market.
Related questions
Related questions
Will Donald Trump be elected president after having been convicted of at least one Federal charge?
16% chance
Will Donald Trump be elected president after having been convicted of at least one Federal charge?
13% chance
Will an impeachment or criminal conviction disqualify Trump from running in the 2024 presidential elections?
7% chance
Who will win 2024 presidential election? && Will SBF receive a presidential pardon before 2028?