Will Alex Zhu meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 2%?

Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 20 years (2043)?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?

Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 10 years (2033)?

Will manifold markets meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3%?

Will janus/@repligate meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 5%?

Will MIRI meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 5%?

Will Zvi's p(doom) go down substantially in 2024?

Will agent foundations [eg Scott Garrabrant] end up affecting p(doom) more than 5%?

Will p(doom) be meaningfully (>3%) affected by alignment researchers choosing to walk rather than run from ptA to ptB?