Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 20 years (2043)? | Manifold

Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 20 years (2043)?

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2043

31%

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20 years from today, December 27th 2023.

My current p(doom) is around 50%. p(doom) for the purpose of this question is the probability that humanity goes extinct, or all human agency gets taken away (enslavement or eternal torture scenarios count, if it applies to every alive human) because of AI.

Note that this question isn't asking about whether doom will actually happen, but whether in 20 years I will predict that it will happen.

Same question for in 10 years:

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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If I had the spare mana I would bet NO. The next 20 years are the scariest time it seems like

I expect this to be low. Most of my probability mass is on doom before the 20 years mark, so if it doesn't come to pass within 20 years we might be good? but also 10% is pretty low

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