What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2025?
4
120Ṁ48Dec 22
38%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Similar to this market - https://manifold.markets/chris/what-is-manifolds-pdoom-will-resolv
The difference here is I will be resolving this to the % of the result of a poll conducted last week of 2025.
Related markets:
Right now - https://manifold.markets/chris/what-is-manifolds-pdoom-will-resolv
End of 2024 - https://manifold.markets/chris/what-will-manifolds-pdoom-be-at-the
This market - https://manifold.markets/chris/what-will-manifolds-pdoom-be-at-the-68646ab65a1e
End of 2026 - https://manifold.markets/chris/what-will-manifolds-pdoom-be-at-the-7c833accc9b3
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000
Related questions
Related questions
What will be the P(doom) of these individuals when Manifold thinks ASI is <1y away?
What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2026?
41% chance
Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 20 years (2043)?
32% chance
Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 10 years (2033)?
58% chance
Will manifold markets meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3%?
18% chance
Will Manifold be subject to a DDoS attack before the end of 2025?
67% chance
At the end of 2025, will Manifold think things have changed for the worse for us as a society?
75% chance
Will Manifold still be around in 2035? (resolves N/A at the end of 2026)
50% chance
What will today's p(doom) be determined to be retrospectively by post singularity simulations?
10% chance
Daniel Kokotajlo’s P(Doom) falls below 50% before the end of 2027
22% chance