Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 10 years (2033)?
Basic
10
Ṁ1632033
63%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
10 years from today, December 27th 2023.
My current p(doom) is around 50%. p(doom) for the purpose of this question is the probability that humanity goes extinct, or all human agency gets taken away (enslavement or eternal torture scenarios count, if it applies to every alive human) because of AI.
Note that this question isn't asking about whether doom will actually happen, but whether in 10 years I will predict that it will happen.
See the same market for 20 years:
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00Sort by:
Note that unlike for the 20 years market, it seems plausible that doom happens between 10 and 20 years out, so i might still have a decent p(doom) even if my beliefs model of the world don't change much til then, other than updating on staying-alive-til-2033
Related questions
Related questions
Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 20 years (2043)?
31% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?
23% chance
Will Eliezer's AI doom market have a higher P(doom) in the third quarter of 2026 than today's (2023-09-27) 21%?
33% chance
Will Paul Christiano publicly announce a greater than 10% increase in his p(doom | AGI before 2100) within the next 5 years?
49% chance
Will Zvi's p(doom) go down substantially in 2024?
15% chance
What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2025?
39% chance
What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2024?
29% chance
What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2026?
41% chance
Will the next president state a P(doom)?
Will MIRI meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 5%?
47% chance