Will official sources determine that at least two of the major Los Angeles area fires starting between January 6-9, 2025, were the result of coordinated arson?

Background: In early January 2025, significant wildfires occurred across the Los Angeles area (e.g., Palisades, Pasadena, Sunset, Studio City, Ventura). This market aims to determine if at least two of these major fires were intentionally set by a single individual or group acting in concert.

Detailed Resolution Criteria:

This market will resolve to YES if, by January 9, 2026 (a year from the initial period):

• A primary investigative authority (defined below) officially and publicly concludes that at least two of the major Los Angeles area fires starting between January 6-9, 2025, were deliberately set by a single individual or group acting in coordination.

• A court of competent jurisdiction convicts an individual or individuals for intentionally setting at least two of the major Los Angeles area fires starting between January 6-9, 2025, as part of a coordinated plan.

This market will resolve to NO if, by January 9, 2026:

• The predominant conclusion of primary investigative authorities is that none of the major Los Angeles area fires starting between January 6-9, 2025, were the result of arson.

• The predominant conclusion of primary investigative authorities is that while some fires may have been arson, there is no evidence of coordination between at least two of them.

• No primary investigative authority has issued a definitive public conclusion regarding the cause(s) of at least two of the major Los Angeles area fires starting between January 6-9, 2025, and no court conviction for coordinated arson has occurred.

Definitions:

• Primary Investigative Authority: Los Angeles Fire Department (LAFD), Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD), Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CAL FIRE), Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF), or any other government agency explicitly designated by name to lead the investigation into these specific fires by one of the aforementioned agencies or a relevant government official.

• Officially and Publicly Concludes: A formal statement, report, press conference, or similar public communication clearly attributed to the investigative authority itself.

• Major Los Angeles Area Fires starting between January 6-9, 2025: The significant wildfires that gained substantial media attention and required significant resource allocation in the Los Angeles area during this period.

• Coordinated Arson: The intentional setting of at least two of the aforementioned major fires planned and executed by the same individual(s) or group(s) acting together.