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Hey all, here is the poll: https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/-who-was-manifolds-2024-person-of-t?play=true, this market will resolve after it closes on January 26.

Please pardon me for the delay, I love Manifold's community and its commitment to proper marketrunning 💙 Hope you had fun in this market, congratz to all the winners!

@traders

@itsTomekK

@PaperBoy thak you sir

Has the poll be posted?

Hot take: Trump, Musk, and AI have been VASTLY more significant to the world this year than Jimmy Carter

@TheAllMemeingEye Im gonna be honest all Jimmy Carter's done this year is die, so I wouldn't exactly call that PotY

markets with Elon Musk in the title or Donald Trump in the title have many more traders than markets that have Jimmy Carter in the title.

@Bayesian imo you have to partially control for baseline—Trump is universally huge everywhere for obvious boring reasons that have nothing to do with manifold, while JC is uniquely "our guy"

@Gameknight exactly—the fact that all Jimmy Carter has done this year is (1) be alive, until (2) he died, neither of which has any actual substantive impact on the rest of the world, and yet somehow his markets are even ~30% or whatever as popular as the markets about the literal president elect is exactly why he's obviously manifold's PotY imo

obvs this depends on interpretation. if it's "if the manifold userbase was in charge of picking the Time POTY award, who would they select", then none of this applies, and Trump is the only choice. but that's not how i interpret the question at all—for "who is Manifold's 2024 Person of the Year", I will be accounting for their specific appeal on manifold (and timeliness matters—2024 is specifically the year of JC, Trump will be just as relevant for all the coming years)

(even though i personally dislike JC death markets & had them all blocked lol, i still think that's the easy answer)

@ClubmasterTransparent he did it. he actually did it.

I swear, I see his death markets fkn everywhere 💀💀💀

It’s not just you.

Whether or not Jimmy rings in 2025, someone at Manifold will have a big day in 2024.

Please add @jim

Jimmy will stay alive and btfo the death betters, so my money is on him

What will be the description on the poll? Will it be "who does Manifold deem should be person of the year" or "who the person of the year for Manifold"? Or will it just be that question and left ambiguous?

it will be "Who was Manifold's 2024 Person of the Year", as voted by people, regardless of Manifold's team