Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city, lies in the northeastern part of the country and serves as the administrative center of Kharkiv Oblast. Founded in 1654, it has evolved into a significant hub for industry, trade, and Ukrainian culture within the historic region of Sloboda Ukraine. During the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, Kharkiv became a strategic focal point due to its proximity to the Russian border, experiencing battles and bombardments that highlighted its importance in the broader geopolitical landscape. The city's resilience and response to the conflict have underscored its critical role in Ukraine's defense and national identity.
under what control will it be on December 31, 2030?
1,000
3.00@KongoLandwalker Its dependent - Idk what the criterion is for "control", but it shouldn't be possible for 2 different countries to "control" the same city at the same time (so the probability that both are true on Dec 31, 2030 should be 0 - they are dependent as long as both have positive probability).
Related: As they can't both be YES you can get arbitrage by betting NO on both as long as the probs sum to >100%, like they do right now.
But you can't get arbitrage by betting YES on both because if fighting goes on inside the city by 2030 or if its controlled by another, 3rd country both will be NO. (I'm writing to understand myself so I overexplain)