Will there be Israeli troops in Lebanon on January 1st, 2025?
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52
แน€4326
Jan 1
80%
chance

Resolves YES if there are Israeli ground troops situated in Lebanese territory on January 1st, 2025. Resolves NO if there aren't any ground troops in Lebanon on that date.

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Small scale ground war was happening for the past year. Over 70 raids with 20-40 troops spent days inside Lebanon

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-sends-troops-into-lebanon-escalating-fight-against-hezbollah-1dbcee03

Now it is about 1000+ prepping the way for over 40k

opened a แน€1 YES at 49% order

longer term version