Resolves YES if Biden is admitted to a hospital before August 1, 2024 and stays overnight. Otherwise NO.
(For reference, the reason this is asking about August 2024 is because that's when the Democratic National Convention is held, i.e. when the nominee is chosen.)
Elaboration of resolution criteria
Medical care at a hospital without an overnight stay would not count as YES.
If Biden is admitted on the last day of July and stays overnight through August 1, that counts as YES.
Examples that count as hospitalization for this question:
Examples that do not:
1,000
1.00Yes he has covid but he immediately started taking plaxovid, which reduces hospitalizations (already low ~1.6%) by 51% (to 0.8%) within 30 days of infection.
Biden has COVID
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/17/president-biden-tests-positive-for-covid-unidosus-leader-says.html
The president, who was delivering speeches in Las Vegas, “is experiencing mild symptoms,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said in a statement.
Biden “will be returning to Delaware where he will self-isolate and will continue to carry out all of his duties fully during that time,” Jean-Pierre said.
@MarcusAbramovitch yeah it's sad how in denial the dumbocrats are about their marionette POTUS... historically unpopular, generally incoherent, and possibly corrupt. This is the mediocrity that TDS delivers.
@AlQuinn I'm not making a partisan statement. Biden is just very clearly old. Old people often go to the hospital, often overnight.
@MarcusAbramovitch understood, but my point is about how Manifold is dominated by coastal (SF, NYC) people who should be expected to systematically misjudge certain probabilities based on their biases. That's why I'm betting against Biden '24 across the board