Will SpaceX’s 5th Starship test flight have a “rapid unscheduled disassembly“?
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Ṁ3725
Jan 1
18%
Starship (upper stage) RUD
26%
Booster RUD

Resolves YES if the next (5th) Starship integrated flight test has an unplanned explosion or breakup, known as a "rapid unscheduled/unplanned disassembly (RUD)".

The upper stage and booster each resolve separately to whether they each have a RUD.

  • Being destroyed on contact with the surface as planned is not a RUD.

  • Other examples of things that aren't sufficient to count as a RUD: a part flying off without causing the breakup of the rocket, or a single engine having a fire.

  • Exploding on the pad before the launch would also count as a RUD.

  • We'll use a common sense definition here. The sources for resolution will be SpaceX, media, prominent space youtubers, etc. In case it isn't clear then I'll run a poll.

  • This question is about the next Starship mission with a planned trajectory that reaches space (100km altitude) - any low altitude test does not count for example. The close date is not a deadline, the question resolves when the flight occurs.

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Where is the option for stage 0 RUD (The tower)