Resolves YES if the US Congress proposes a Constitutional amendment (which requires a 2/3 vote in both the House and Senate) between now and the end of 2025. Otherwise resolves NO.
A proposed amendment then requires ratification by 3/4 of states to become law, but this question resolves YES as soon Congress passes the proposal, this question does not require ratification.
1,000
3.00Having just bet as much as I'd be willing to risk, I still think this is overpriced at 3%, for several related reasons, or different ways of saying the same thing:
1 - America can't agree with itself that strongly on anything of relevance;
2 - Even if the Dems won every single Senate election (ha, ha) they'd still have only 62 seats; granted, it would be 72 if it was a GOP sweep, but that's an even bigger "ha, ha". Realistically, AZ, MT and OH are seen as tossups; including Dem "leans" and "likelies" for both parties, the Dems have to defend MD, NJ, MI, NV, PA and WI, and the GOP needs to defend FL and maybe TX. So the Dems will likely have something between 41 and 52.
3 - every time Congress has proposed an Amendment after the repeal of Prohibition in 1933, there was a relatively clear, pressing reason to do so, based on considerations of fairness, practicality or both; the 22nd Amendment limits Presidents to two terms, the 23rd gives DC Presidential electors, the 24th prohibits poll taxes, the 25th clarifies Presidential succession, and the 26th gives 18-year-olds (who at the time were dying in Vietnam) the right to vote. I don't see a very clear reason similar to these ones, that might motivate an Amendment in the next 22 months;
4 - the last time it happened was in 1971!