Is Q* the A star pathfinding search combined with Q-learning, as claimed in a "tin hat time" tweet?
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Jan 1
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https://twitter.com/natolambert/status/1727474191925182849

Doesn't have to be exact, just close enough to be informative

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We don't really know what Q stands for, but "star" is likely STaR. It would map very well to the way o1 works. So, no A* pathfinding.

bought Ṁ30 NO

Think this resolves no?

I bought yes assuming that this will payout even if Q* turns out to include other insights

predicts NO

Yes, if Q* includes A*, Q-learning, and other stuff this pays out. "Doesn't have to be exact, just close enough to be informative"

predicts YES

@Alex my personal wild guess is that it's A* combined with a many billion parameter semantic search partner to guess at heuristic values for any search problem.

Wouldn’t that basically be a muzero-esque algorithm? Mcts with pruning via your value function (the llm)

I'm against these kinds of markets. I don't think we should have markets that encourage the leaking of details about potentially dangerous capabilities advances.

predicts NO

@ChrisLeong I find it hard to believe that anyone will commit such a serious crime for mana when they could commit the exact same crime but sell the information to Google.

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