When will humanity's last exam be saturated? (>80%)
42
1kṀ8079
2030
12%
2025
44%
2026
23%
2027
5%
2028
3%
2029
2%
2030
11%
later / never

Resolves to the year in which an AI first achieves an accuracy of at least 80%.

Text-only models are allowed. o3-mini (high) is currently in the lead with an accuracy of 13.0%

https://lastexam.ai/

AI
Technology
Technical AI Timelines
Math
AI Benchmarks
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will OpenAI's o4 get above 50% on humanity's last exam?
13% chance
What will be the best AI performance on Humanity's Last Exam by December 31st 2025?
Humanity's Last Exam score in 2025?
57.7
Which of FrontierMath and Humanity's Last Exam will be saturated (>80%) first?
Will Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2028?
75% chance
Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2030?
60% chance
Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2028?
39% chance
Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2027?
39% chance
Will there be another benchmark/test after "Humanity's Last Exam"?
89% chance
Will Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2027?
68% chance
Sort by:

Huh, I checked a random question in there out of curiosity and the given answer is just wrong.

Related market: https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/what-will-be-the-best-ai-performanc

What does this resolve to if it never gets >80%, e.g. if more than 20% of the questions are broken? I'm guessing "later"

@Nikola fixed ty

People are also trading

Will OpenAI's o4 get above 50% on humanity's last exam?
-5% 1d13% chance
What will be the best AI performance on Humanity's Last Exam by December 31st 2025?
Humanity's Last Exam score in 2025?
57.7
Which of FrontierMath and Humanity's Last Exam will be saturated (>80%) first?
Will Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2028?
75% chance
Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2030?
60% chance
Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2028?
39% chance
Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2027?
39% chance
Will there be another benchmark/test after "Humanity's Last Exam"?
89% chance
Will Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2027?
68% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules