What will come first Superconductor or Cure for cancer? (Yes Conductor, No Cancer)

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Ṁ1371

2099

65%

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Resolves YES if we have a superconductor before curing cancer. No if we cure cancer before having a superconductor.

What counts as curing cancer: If cancer deaths in germany fall by 95% from 2023 levels. This year there are expected to be 240000 deaths caused by cancer. The first year there are 12000 or fewer it counts as having cured cancer.

What counts as having a superconductor: When the sales of superconductors is half as big as that of the 2021 semiconductor market. Which was$556 billion. So superconductor sales have to reach 278 Billion.

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will you try your best to correct for cancer inflation due to changing demographics?

predicts NO

@AlexAmadori I will correct if something weird happens like 90% of people leaving Germany or the population doubling. But if the population just changes by a couple % I will not adjust.

For the superconductor question I will be using inflation adjusted dollars.

There already are superconductors at low temperatures. This question should resolve yes.

@RutgerDeMaeyer "What counts as having a superconductor: When the sales of superconductors is half as big as that of the 2021 semiconductor market. Which was$556 billion. So superconductor sales have to reach 278 Billion." From the description

I think your question title and description are opposite as to what YES means.

@Tossup Thanks for telling me. Will edit the description right away. So far only 20M have been bet so I am assuming the two bettors don't mind.

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