Will a human being live to be 150 years old or older before the end of 2100? | Manifold

Will a human being live to be 150 years old or older before the end of 2100?

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15

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2100

27%

chance

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1M

ALL

This question will resolve as YES if at least one human being is verified to have lived to be 150 years old or older before the end of 2100. Otherwise, it will resolve as NO. Verification would need to come from a credible source, such as a government agency, scientific organization, or reputable news outlet. Any claims that cannot be verified through such sources would not count towards a resolution of YES.

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If someone is 150 years old before the end of 2100, they were born in 1950 or earlier.

i.e. they are already almost 74 years old at the youngest. This market should be under 10%.

If a person is made digital, that counts, right? Like, if someone is biological for 100 years and digital for 50 (of objective time), that would count as a total of 150 years.

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