Will the U.K. Conservative Party lead in a national poll by the end of 2025?
Basic
21
Ṁ1.1k2026
22%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The U.K. Conservative Party last led a national poll in December 2021; since then, the Labour Party have tied or led in every poll. Resolves to YES if a valid poll with the Conservatives leading is published and NO otherwise.
A valid poll must:
– Be a national (Great Britain) Westminster voting intention poll, not a regional poll
– Be based on the current situation, not on some sort of hypothetical
– Have the Conservatives leading, not tied, where this is based off the integer-valued percentages that are published
– Be carried out entirely before the end of 2025
– Be conducted by a member of the British Polling Council
See here for past polls: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
Get Ṁ600 play money
Related questions
Will the U.K. Conservative Party lead in a national poll by the end of 2024?
7% chance
Will a new UK political party gain 50+ seats by the end of 2028? (In the house of commons)
17% chance
National parliament voting intention of the Conservatives in the UK as of 27 September 2024, according to Politico?
Conditional on losing the upcoming general election, how soon will the UK Conservative party be back in power?
What will be true of the next permanent leader of the UK Conservative Party?
Will the next leader of the Conservative Party become Prime Minister of the UK?
28% chance
When will the Conservative Party next lead a national poll? (UK general election polling)
Will Labour Party win 2025 UK election?
90% chance
Will a new UK party (including Reform) gain over 1% of the national vote share in the next UK election?
89% chance
Will any party win more than 50% of the votes at the next UK general election?
1% chance