Will AfD get 21+% in 2029 German Federal Elections?
4
100Ṁ412029
60%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) is a far-right political party founded in 2013. In the 2025 German Federal Elections, the AfD achieved a significant breakthrough, securing 20.80% of the vote, more than doubling its previous vote share.
This market resolves to YES if the AfD party receives 21.0% or more of the total valid votes ("Zweitstimmen" or second votes) in the 2029 German Federal Elections.
The market resolves to NO if:
The AfD receives less than 21.0% of the vote
The AfD is banned or dissolved before the election
The AfD merges with another party and runs under a different name
The market will resolve based on the official final results as reported by the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiter).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Related questions
Related questions
Will the FDP be part of the next German parliament?
1% chance
Will the far-right german party, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), get the most seats in german parliament (2025)?
1% chance
Will Alternative for Germany (AfD) be part of the German government by 2026?
3% chance
What share of the vote will the AFD receive in the next German federal election?
21% chance
Which party will win the most seats in the next German federal elections before 2026? (AfD)
1% chance
WIll AfD be part of a federal governing coalition in Germany by 2030?
40% chance
Will the AfD participate in a German federal or state government by the year 2030?
54% chance
Will AfD become the biggest party in the following german elections
19% chance
Will the German AfD be part of a ruling coalition on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?
23% chance
What share of the vote will the FDP receive in the next German federal election?
5% chance