
Will the German AfD be part of a ruling coalition on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?
16
1kṀ14502026
23%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
There needs to be a formal coalition, e.g. tolerating a minority government does not count. I will follow the mainstream media consensus on whether a formal coalition exists. Generally, this involves things like a coalition contract and a division of the cabinet positions.
There are currently six elections planned on state level in this timeframe (https://www.wahlrecht.de/termine.htm) and also some states where the state of the parliament seems somewhat unstable after the elections last year.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Related questions
Related questions
Will the radical right AfD get more votes than the social democrats in Germany's next federal election?
95% chance
Which coalitions will be feasible after the 2025 German Bundestag election?
Will the AfD receive >= 20% of votes in the 2025 German federal election?
78% chance
Which coalition will govern Germany after the next Bundestag election?
Will the far-right german party, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), get the most seats in german parliament (2025)?
1% chance
Will the AfD be the party with the most votes in eastern Germany in the next federal election?
92% chance
What will be the results of the next German federal election?
Which coalition will form the next German government after the 2025 German election?
Will the FDP be part of the next German parliament?
28% chance
Will the AfD win a constituency seat in Western Germany?
26% chance