Will Grok achieve 98% or greater on ARC by the end of November 2024?
Basic
5
Ṁ531Dec 1
3%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves YES if any version of Grok scores >= 98% on ARC by the end of November 2024. Otherwise, this market resolves NO.
Resolution will be determined by community agreement - results contested by a large portion of the community will not be valid for the purposes of this market.
See https://github.com/fchollet/ARC for more details on ARC.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
By when will 85% be reached on the public evaluation set on ARC-AGI-Pub?
Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2025?
48% chance
Will Grok 2 'exceed current [March 28 2024] AI on all metrics'?
25% chance
Will GPT4/Opus report >50% score on ARC in 2024?
36% chance
Will a Grok AI get >90% on ARC in 2024?
11% chance
Will Grok2 “Exceed Current AI Models on All Metrics” [Creator's best judgement]
30% chance
What will be true of Grok-2?
Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?
14% chance
Will Grok 2 be open-sourced by 2025?
59% chance
will grok actually work by EOY 2024 according to @jacksonpalock
63% chance