Congressional Survivor: Who will be the final member in Congress?
19
Ṁ1508
2029
30%
Josh Hawley (R: MO)
26%
Rashida Tlaib (D: MI-12)
24%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, AOC (D: NY-14)
9%
Jon Ossoff (D: GA)
5%
Maxwell Frost (D: FL-10)
3%
Cori Bush (D: MO-1)
3%
Matt Gaetz (R: FL-1)

Which of these (relatively) young and healthy members will be in Congress last (not longest)! Once someone loses reelection, or resigns from Congress, they are officially eliminated (effective at the end of their term or resignation date). If someone dies, they are immediately eliminated. Whoever is the last one standing will be the winner.

People can switch Congressional districts, or chambers of Congress, but they must hold roles in consecutive terms to not be eliminated. If someone leaves Congress and later returns, they are still eliminated.

Market will extend as needed.

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Is this not a multimarket in case of a tie? How will you resolve the last two ending at the same time (losing seats in the same election, resigning same term, etc)? Both YES or each 50%?

bought Ṁ50 Rashida Tlaib (D: MI... YES

Rashida is so popular in her district that even AIPAC isn’t trying to unseat her. And they HATE her. Her odds should be the odds of her resigning in disgust/contempt.

Cori Bush (D: MO-1)
bought Ṁ500 Cori Bush (D: MO-1) NO

@mattyb Cori Bush lost her primary to Wesley Bell

this’ll Resolve NO (eventually). It’s not a Multi-market, so I can’t Resolve any early.

Ah okay

bought Ṁ10 Jon Ossoff (D: GA) NO

Ossof is from a swing state he barely won his seat in a strong democratic year. I like the guy but he's definitely at more risk than the safe D/R seat people.

@ShakedKoplewitz true but senators are less susceptible to fluctuations in the political environment due to their 6-year terms. the average House member has to run 3x as many campaigns and still has to win every one. a senator can get lucky and avoid the odd wave election that would normally wipe them out

@pyrylium It should be noted that Senate incumbents have a significantly lower re-election rate than House incumbents per cycle (83% vs 93%)