This will be Resolved two weeks after Hurricane Milton has been downgraded below a Tropical Depression based on which storm has a higher estimated total cost of damages, according to Wikipedia.
If there’s a range of damages, this will look at the top of the range for both storms. If this is a tie, it will Resolve NO.
1,000
1.00
@WilliamGunn Yeah the odds on this question seemed shocking to me initially given just the property values and density of where milton made landfall compared to helene.
but i always assume there's something idk still, im. neg on this app for a reason lol. maybe one of those considerations is that because florida is more hurricane prepared(?)
@Pjfkh i’m using Wikipedia. Wikipedia is using this:
In 2018, Roger A. Pielke Jr. and Christopher Landseapublished a peer-reviewed study in the scientific journalNature Sustainability, which gave an estimate of the direct economic losses in the continental United States from 1900 to 2017 from each hurricane if that same event was to occur under contemporary (2017) societal conditions.[8] The general formula for normalized losses is
where is reported damage in current-year US dollars, is the GDP deflator for inflation adjustment, is an estimate of current-cost net stock of fixed assets and consumer durable goods to capture changes in real wealth per-capita, and county population adjustment.
@mattyb Wikipedia doesn't seem to show the normalized cost for hurricanes after 2017. Also, it seems like the nominal cost comes from reporting, and these reports can vary wildly even for the same hurricane:
https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/helene-is-2nd-deadliest-u-s-hurricane-in-50-years-could-cost-250-billion/1698452
https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/us/news/catastrophe/moodys-rms-estimates-11-billion-in-private-insured-losses-from-hurricane-helene-508750.aspx
The wiki page seems to mostly use insured losses, but for some hurricanes it seems to use uninsured losses. From the source for Hurricane Ida:
As a clearer picture of Ida’s devastation emerged, the hurricane likely caused $50 billion to $60 billion in total damage, estimated Karen Clark, who has calculated catastrophic risk since 1987. Her risk modeling company, Karen Clark and Company, figured just $18 billion of those losses would be insured.
Ida is listed at $75.2 billion in nominal damage
@Nightsquared @traders reading through the Wiki comments, they seem to use a variety of sources.
i think relying on the same source for estimates of the damage makes sense, and should be fair. i’ll likely consult a few sources to see how they report the damage from both storms (Wikipedia included). if there’s no clear consensus of which did more damage, i may resolve this to 50:50.
does anyone object to that?
"She said during a news conference this morning the fact that Tampa didn’t see the predicted storm surge, “saved a lot, that’s what we were really worried about,” but added that the risk of flooding was not over."
@tmk both of these storms are from this year, I don’t see any adjustments for inflation being necessary.