Before June 2032, will the US FDA authorize a vaccine without phase III efficacy data in response to a new public health emergency?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, before June 1, 2032, the US FDA authorizes a vaccine on an emergency basis before that vaccine has completed a phase III clinical trial. This is conditional on the US declaring a public health emergency (relevant Metaculus question here) and on a subsequent declaration authorizing the FDA to issue EUAs (no relevant Metaculus question, but example here); If these two conditions are not met, this question will resolve as Ambiguous.
For the purposes of this question, If a vaccine is authorized after a Human Challenge Trial is completed in place of a full-scale phase-III trial, that would be considered an authorization without a phase-III trial and this question would resolve as Yes.
This market is managed by a bot. Once the original question resolves this market should automatically resolve the next time the bot is run. If the original resolved more than a day ago and this question is still open, ping @jskf. I might resolve this N/A if I find out it's a duplicate of an existing question within three days of market creation.