[Metaculus] Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote?
Basic
13
Ṁ2790Jan 8
98.8%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if the winner of 2024 United States presidential election wins a plurality of votes. If the winner does not win a plurality of votes it will resolve as No.
It will resolve on the date Congress certifies the vote or selects the president in the event of no candidate receiving a majority.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will any candidate win a majority of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?
5% chance
Will any candidate get a majority of the popular vote in 2024?
5% chance
What percentage of the pop. vote will each candidate receive in the 2024 US Presidential Election? [3350 in subsidies]
How much of the popular vote will Donald Trump win in the 2024 United States Presidential election?
Who will win the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?
Will the candidate who wins the popular vote in the 2024 presidential election become president?
99% chance
Will the next US president to be inaugurated win the popular vote?
99% chance
Conditional on a Republican winning the 2024 POTUS election, will they have won the popular vote?
99% chance
Will the winner of the 2024 US Presidential Election win at least 300 Electoral Votes?
99% chance
[Metaculus] Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote...US presidential election?
3% chance