Will the candidate who wins the popular vote in the 2024 presidential election become president?
Plus
27
Ṁ14kJan 22
98.8%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
"Win the popular vote" means they get more total votes than any other candidate.
This market could for example resolve NO if they:
Lose the electoral college vote.
Are banned last-minute from becoming president, such that they were on the ballot but can't take office.
Die before taking office.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will any candidate get a majority of the popular vote in 2024?
5% chance
Will any candidate win a majority of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?
5% chance
If Joe Biden becomes the Democratic nominee, will he win the 2024 election?
37% chance
Who will win the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?
Conditional on a Republican winning the 2024 POTUS election, will they have won the popular vote?
99% chance
Will any candidate receive a record number of votes in the 2024 US Presidential Election?
52% chance
Will the Democratic candidate's popular vote exceed Republican candidate's popular vote in 2024 Presidential election?
1% chance
Will the next US president to be inaugurated win the popular vote?
99% chance
[Metaculus] Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote?
99% chance