Ilya Sutskever announced today that he will be creating a new company Safe Superintelligence (SSI). What will be true of this company by EOY 2025?
Answers will resolve early if the criteria are met before EOY 2025. Answers starting with “I will believe” refer to @mr_mino , the market creator, unless otherwise specified. I will resolve NO for all questions without evidence. E.g. “The model will score > 85 on MMLU” will resolve NO if no one demonstrates that their model has achieved this score, even if it seems likely that it will if tested.
If you see a question you’d like to resolve early, please post a comment below. Feel free to add answers to this question.
1,000
3.00They’ve raised exactly $1B, annoyingly.
Valued at $5B - a couple of options can be resolved. @mr_mino
Not planning to work at SSI
@CameronHolmes I'm mainly wondering whether they will go down the Anthropic/GDM path and use TPUs/ASICs, but it seemed simpler to do the negative framing rather than try and catch all alternative options.
ML researchers rarely publish in journals, and big players (like OpenAI) often don’t even bother with conferences or other forms of peer review.
"the company will declare bankruptcy"
Daniel Gross is one of the most successful investors in the current wave of technology. He could fund a meaningful research org singlehandedly for years. Also, for the next five years Ilya is going to be able to meet with ~any investor and raise capital