When will SWE-bench be solved?
6
100Ṁ128
2030
3%
2024
38%
2025
32%
2026
8%
2027
8%
2028
8%
2029
5%
later

Resolves to the first year in which https://www.swebench.com posts a 90% resolved score in the “verified” category. The current score is 38.80% by Amazon Q Developer Agent.

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Relatively significant chance of never (which resolves at later). Frontier LLMs are just going to get more and more contaminated with this benchmark's test data - at some point authors might just stop tracking

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