Who will win the 2026 Chess Candidates Tournament?
Basic
14
Ṁ3572027
19%
Fabiano Caruana
12%
Arjun Erigaisi
8%
Nodirbek Abdusattorov
6%
Alireza Firouzja
6%
Hikaru Nakamura
4%
Ian Nepomniachtchi
4%
Praggnanandhaa R
3%
Other
3%
Ding Liren
3%
Gukesh D
3%
Magnus Carlsen
2%
Wei Yi
1.5%
Daniil Dubov
1.5%
Wang Hao
1.4%
Anish Giri
1.3%
Vincent Keymer
1.3%
Vladislav Artemiev
1.3%
Alexey Sarana
1.3%
M. Amin Tabatabaei
1.3%
N/A (e.g. tournament cancelled)
This market refers to this event:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2026#Candidates_Tournament
An option resolves YES if a player wins the event and NO otherwise. If they do not participate, their option resolves NO. If the tournament is delayed past 2026, I will adjust the resolution date until the end of the tournament.
I have added all of the players who currently (as of May 7, 2024) have a live classical chess rating >= 2700. No additional players will be added. The market resolves 'Other' if a player not on this list wins the event.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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