Conditional on LK-99 replicating, is the latest video of LK-99 exhibiting flux pinning real?
Plus
19
Ṁ2924Jan 3
17%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This is a derivative of (A):
and (B):
Is the latest video of a supposed sample of LK-99 exhibiting flux pinning real? | Manifold
Resolves "N/A" when (A) is resolved as "NO".
Resolves "YES" when (A) and (B) are resolved as "YES".
Resolves "NO" when (A) is "YES" and (B) is "NO".
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
@gigab0nus I mean (B) is at 3% and (A) is at 12%, so this one is obviously mispriced. This should trade in the area of 0% to 25% right now, but noone seems to care about arbitraging since they expect this one will be N/Ad.
Since (B) strongly implies (A) and they both have a very similar price at the moment, this should be at around 100%.
Related questions
Related questions
Will LK-99 demonstrate clear evidence of flux pinning?
3% chance
Conditional on any room-temp superconductor being replicated before 2025, will the main LK-99 market resolve YES?
33% chance
Conditional on LK-99 replicating, will a RTSC be used commercially by 2026?
57% chance
Nobel Prize by 2026 if LK-99 superconductor replicates?
66% chance
[100x Fine] Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025?
95
Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2026?
2% chance
Nobel Prize by 2035 if LK-99 superconductor replicates?
81% chance
Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print ever get replicated?
13% chance