When will AIs be good at predicting the future?
Standard
14
Ṁ19572042
1D
1W
1M
ALL
71%
2030
64%
2025
59%
2027
48%
2026
Each year category resolves to the percentage of people worse than the best AI at predicting the future.
To measure who is better or worse at predicting the future, I will look at how the best AI system did in the ACX prediction contest. In summary, it is about placing a bunch of predictions at once on relevant topics. You can read more about it here: https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/2023-contest/.
I might use a different contest if I find a better one.
Similar market about problem solving: https://manifold.markets/patrik/how-good-will-ais-be-in-solving-com.
Get
1,000
and1.00
Sort by:
Related questions
Related questions
Which AI will be the best at the end of 2024?
When will AIs be good at solving complex problems? (read description)
Will a high-volume prediction market expect OpenAI to create AGI before 2030?
79% chance
Which AI future will we get?
Which AI will be the best at the end of 2025?
Will AI take over the world by 2100?
32% chance
By when will AIs perform at least as well as humans on GAIA?
Will AI surpass human intellect by 2030?
75% chance
Will AI create utopia for humans by the year 2100?
29% chance
Will neurotechnology enable AI to predict and classify human decisions, along with their influencing factors, by 2030?
70% chance