When will AIs be good at predicting the future?
➕
Plus
14
Ṁ1957
2042
71%
2030
64%
2025
59%
2027
48%
2026

Each year category resolves to the percentage of people worse than the best AI at predicting the future.

To measure who is better or worse at predicting the future, I will look at how the best AI system did in the ACX prediction contest. In summary, it is about placing a bunch of predictions at once on relevant topics. You can read more about it here: https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/2023-contest/.

I might use a different contest if I find a better one.

Similar market about problem solving: https://manifold.markets/patrik/how-good-will-ais-be-in-solving-com.

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I don’t understand the resolution yet, is it that you will use some AI systems to forecast the ACX forecasts and then compare the best performing one to the distribution of human results?

@Maxx That, or if someone else makes an AI system and participates.

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