2028 US Presidential Election winner?
๐Ÿ’Ž
Premium
291
แน€180k
2028
40%
Other
22%
JD Vance
9%
Josh Shapiro
5%
Kamala Harris
4%
Pete Buttigieg
3%
Gavin Newsom
2%
Andy Beshear
2%
Tim Walz
1.6%
Vivek Ramaswamy
1.6%
Mike Gallagher
1.5%
Ron DeSantis
1.5%
Gretchen Whitmer
1.4%
Donald Trump (Sr.)

Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve to "Yes" for the candidate officially declared the winner of the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election by the U.S. Electoral College and certified by Congress, as verified by the U.S. Federal Election Commission (FEC) or another authorized government body. If no candidate is declared the winner, it will resolve to "No."

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Suggested additions:

  • Jared Polis

  • Raphael Warnock

  • Gina Raimondo

  • AOC

  • Amy Klobuchar

  • Wes Moore

  • Mark Kelly

  • Ted Cruz

  • Marco Rubio

  • Glenn Youngkin

  • Josh Hawley

  • Tom Cotton

  • Elise Stefanik

  • Kristi Noem

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bought แน€200 Pete Buttigieg NO

why is Pete Buttigieg so high. I know he'd be the best candidate but he's not electable.

@ZaneMiller Why don't you think he's electable? He doesn't have near the same energy as Trump but he's definitely better than Biden or Harris.

@zsig the obvious? a whole lot of Americans are still against gay marriage, even 10-20% of Democrats. and there are probably even more than that who are at least uncomfortable with the idea of a gay president.

@ZaneMiller I completely forgot that he's gay. Yeah that's probably true.

okay let's get started on this one

@ZaneMiller ๐Ÿ”ฎ ๐Ÿš€

JD Vance
bought แน€50 JD Vance YES

@predyx_markets underrated. If Harris wins in 2024 he seems both >40% to be the candidate and >60% to win if he is, which gives us 12% already. If Trump wins in 2024 he's almost certainly the candidate in 2028 and probably has at least 40% to win.

@ShakedKoplewitz I don't know if I agree that he's 40% to be the candidate if Trump loses now but you make good points. See also this market

I would consider betting on this market if Elon Musk were added as a candidate.

@SteveSokolowski he's not even eligible

@ShakedKoplewitz Is he not eligible because he was not born in the US?

trump sr seems underpriced at 3%. If he loses this time (55% chance) there's a 75% chance he runs again in the primary in 2028, and if he does there's a 75% chance he wins the primary and a 40% chance he wins the general.

0.55*0.75*0.75*0.4 = 0.124

๐Ÿš€ New Market Alert! ๐Ÿš€

๐Ÿš€ New Market Alert! ๐Ÿš€

@predyx_markets Added another 10K of liquidity to the republican nominee market!

๐ŸŒŠ Fresh off the boat, folks! ๐ŸŒŠ

New market just dropped:

@predyx_markets Added another 10K of liquidity to the democratic nominee market as well!

reposted

Just injected a whopping 100K in liquidity on this electrifying day of the Trump vs. Harris debate! Time to up your stakes and let the predictions fly. Dive in and make it count!

Can we add Mike Gallagher?

Sure! Thanks for the suggestion.

reposted
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