Similar to Sam's original comment, a decade ago we saw 10-15% of adults on antidepressants.

Even in 2023 we're looking at an average of 17% usage (by gender: 24% of women)

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1391260/us-adults-currently-have-or-being-treated-for-depression-by-gender/

I would expect usage for GLP-1s to surge early, see some churn (injections, side effects) and then continue to grow slowly until something better comes along.

So: how likely is it that the something better is an easier to take GLP-1? How likely is it that it's something else entirely (eg something easy to discover with alphafold n)? If it's something else entirely, it would probably stop growth in usage of GLP-1s, but not cut them altogether unless there's a very bad long term side effect of GLP-1s (something I don't expect to see, ie <5% chance). Those tails seem equally likely, we're currently at 6% or something. It's notable that up to 12% have tried (that means half of all users stopped)

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/2819949#:~:text=June%207%2C%202024-,Poll%3A%20Roughly%2012%25%20of%20US%20Adults%20Have%20Used%20a%20GLP,1%20Drug%2C%20Even%20If%20Unaffordable&text=About%201%20in%208,poll%20involving%20about%201500%20respondents.

@wrhall If half of all users have stopped, that makes >50% exceedingly unlikely (would almost certainly need new glp 1 form factor), although given the duration of this market it isn't worth it for anybody to bet those down further

Is anyone trading this actually on GLP-1 drugs, or talking with someone who is?

i’d like more bettors on this! just added some liquidity :)

@saulmunn what does regularly mean? once a week, once a month?

@jBosc ( @samb is the market creator, not me)

@jBosc Does anyone take them less often than once a month? Regardless I would be inclined to count any kind of periodic prescribed dosage

My current thinking is that GLP-1 drugs will be more popular than statins are, and statins are used by about 15% of US adults