Will over 100,000 people live in the "City Built From Scratch" by "The Silicon Valley Elite" in Solano County in 2030?
➕
Plus
17
Ṁ915
2031
5%
chance

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/25/business/land-purchases-solano-county.html I'm asking about the Flannery Associates project described in this New York Times article. I will resolve based on population at end of 2030.

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Ṁ1,000
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https://youtu.be/nBfZiunFLcU?t=867

Shovels in the ground no earlier than 2027/28

predicts NO

Cool to see more markets about this

predicts NO

Related: https://manifold.markets/market/will-flannery-associates-proposed-c

Will Flannery Associates' proposed city in Solano County be established and inhabited before 2030?
32% chance. Flannery Associates, backed by renowned tech billionaires, has strategically acquired large portions of land in Solano County, around the Jepson Prairie and Montezuma Hills. Their ambitious vision entails the metamorphosis of over 50,000 acres, currently hosting commercial wind farms, energy infrastructure, and conservation projects, into a bustling metropolis. Flannery Associates' acquisitions and opaque intentions have stirred significant local and legislative apprehensions, compounded by zoning intricacies and statutes like the Williamson Act that conserve agricultural domains. Will the city proposed by Flannery Associates be successfully erected and and populated with at least 2000 people, within the geographical bounds of Jepson Prairie and Montezuma Hills in Solano County before January 1st, 2030? Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve to "YES" if, before January 1st, 2030, Flannery Associates' proposed city meets all these criteria: Legally Approved: a. Zoning Permissions: Received an official rezoning authorization, converting its land use designation from purely agricultural to a mix of residential, commercial, and recreational. Any required variances or exceptions should also be granted. b. Resolved any potential conflicts with the Travis Air Force Base: Attained official clearance ensuring no security or operational conflicts with the adjacent Travis Air Force Base. c. Resolved all potential Williamson Act Complications: Either achieved a complete contract termination, or rolled out a set legal process to shift land out of Williamson Act contracts without violations. d. Building and Development Permits: Secured explicit permits for each phase of construction, including infrastructure, housing, and amenities. Infrastructure Development: a. Connected the city with pre-existing highways or main roads. b. Activated essential utilities: potable water sources, electricity grid, sewage and wastewater treatments. Core Facilities and Housing: Completed at least 1,000 new residential units. Residential Quotient: Attracted and settled at least 2000 permanent residents within its demarcated boundaries, confirmed by either reliable media reports or government records. I will use my discretion when resolving this question, possibly in consultation with urban development experts and available public records, to ensure that the criteria are met, and the city in Solano County has been constructed and populated before 2030.
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