Current external standard (recommended by Ben Adams): https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-energy-substitution?time=1950..latest
The winner is whatever energy source generates most of the world's energy in 2030. This isn't limited only to electricity generation.
@Gideon37 Also coal will stay strong for a long time as a huge portion of that goes into steel, not electricity production.
@Gideon37 My rationale for betting on NG was that it would replace coal and other electricity generation not replace oil directly. Also Oil will decline with more EV adaption but idk if that ends up happening in a big way by 2030
Ok I think I have an idea of how to update the criteria. Use this metric from the Energy institute statistical review.
Global primary energy consumption by source (ourworldindata.org)
As measured by what? Total global capacity? Is "dominant" just whatever is the biggest share? All electricity or all energy? We need more detail
@BenAdams my idea is "whatever generates most of the world's energy in 2030". I would consider all energy, not just electrical generation. is that reasonable?