🌼What will happen in May 2025? [ADD RESPONSES]
43
735Ṁ2210
Jun 1
99%
Eliezer Yudkowsky is alive for the entire month
99%
Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is greater than or equal to 95%
98.8%
donald trump is alive for the entire month
96%
Joe Biden is alive for the entire month
96%
at least one xkcd comic where there are no stick figures at all
88%
An open Manifold market about the Eurovision Song Contest has 100+ Traders
72%
At least five XKCD comics where there are no stick figures at all
70%
a tesla catches fire as reported by mainstream news
69%
At least three hurricanes or typhoons form anywhere on the planet
64%
large tech company announces layoffs
64%
A high school or college commencement speaker is protested by significant group of graduates, per reliable reporting
60%
The S&P 500 closes the month higher than its month opening price
59%
50 or more EF2+ tornadoes in the continental US During May 2025.
59%
Australian federal elections (Yes if Liberal form Government)
58%
https://web3isgoinggreat.com/ has a post on the last day of the month
50%
Toronto Blue Jays have a winning record at the end of the month
45%
Boston Celtics lose a playoff series
43%
GPT 5 released
42%
A YouTube video specifically about Theresa May, James May, mayo(nnaise), Maya (people/artifacts), or mayors is uploaded and gets >1M views
41%
Starship Launch

I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.

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bought Ṁ5 YES

This might happen https://manifold.markets/RZacDQ/yes-or-no-will-there-be-50-or-more#u6LdPlUt5Z

Francis ceases to be pope seems like it a no, not in May 2025.
But
"Francis is not pope" in May 2025 seems like it should be a clear yes.

NA'd. I am not sure I see why, but any reason is allowed.

@ChristopherRandles yeah I don't get why "Francis is not pope" resolved NA? Seems like a clear YES unless he comes back to life for the entirety of May.

bought Ṁ50 NO

@strutheo I'm going to guess no on this one

bought Ṁ10 NO

@ZaneMiller you never know, they might be resurrected! I think this shouldn't have resolved until May 1

(99% joking)

bought Ṁ30 NO

@TheAllMemeingEye Good market.

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bought Ṁ5 YES

@Quroe Thanks haha

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