![](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstorage.googleapis.com%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fcontract-images%2Fstrutheo%252F3497203b4ede.jpg&w=3840&q=75)
🪄Which person's Hogwarts House will be the most difficult for Manifold to predict?
Mini
18
Ṁ9.3kresolved Jul 20
1D
1W
1M
ALL
100%72%
Walter White
1.5%
Columbo
1.5%
Elon Musk
3%
Manifold itself
1.6%
Jesus Christ
1.5%
Chris / strutheo
2%
Rorschach
0.9%
Chat GPT
1.1%
Yossarian (Catch 22)
3%
Tony Soprano
4%
10th Doctor (Doctor Who)
0.6%
Harry James Potter-Evans-Verres (Harry Potter & The Methods of Rationality)
2%
Medic (TF2)
2%
Gordon Freeman
0.7%
Joe Biden
0.7%
Taylor Swift
0.7%
Donald Trump
0.8%
Sam Altman
0.9%Other
At the end of the year we will run a statistical comparison to see which prediction market was the most 'off' from the final poll result. If any person's prediction market is incorrect, only those individuals will be considered.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ1,008 | |
2 | Ṁ24 | |
3 | Ṁ15 |
Sort by:
walter white resolved against prediction! predicted ravenclaw, ended up slytherin
/strutheo/which-hogwarts-house-will-manifold-9161e0f3c124
/strutheo/which-hogwarts-house-do-you-sort-wa