Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of a crime before Alec Baldwin? (50% if neither before end of 2030)
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Resolves 50% if neither happens by the end of 2030
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Tate has charges in both Romania and the UK, IIRC, so I am mainly betting that he will be convicted on at least one of those before Alec Baldwin gets convicted of anything.
If they both live the rest of their lives unconvicted, I would expect this to resolve NO at some point, but I would sell and cut my losses within the next few months if Tate gets off or seems likely to.
Baldwin's case was dismissed with prejudice yesterday: https://apnews.com/article/alec-baldwin-rust-shooting-hutchins-eb3059c696a9aee5cb86967e27d8f3bb
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