Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of a crime before Alec Baldwin? (50% if neither before end of 2030)

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2031

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Resolves 50% if neither happens by the end of 2030

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wait how does this resolve? when one of them dies? technically until then one or both of them can be found guilty of a crime .

yup i guess

ill say before 2030

Tate has charges in both Romania and the UK, IIRC, so I am mainly betting that he will be convicted on at least one of those before Alec Baldwin gets convicted of anything.

If they both live the rest of their lives unconvicted, I would expect this to resolve NO at some point, but I would sell and cut my losses within the next few months if Tate gets off or seems likely to.