Julian Assange is awaiting extradition to the USA, and Evan Gershkovich is being held in a Russian prison awaiting release back to the USA
1,000
1.00Oh dang I hate when technicalities tank fun markets.
Based on the news today, chances are Gershkovich will return to the US soon, meanwhile Assange wonβt.
Thanks @strutheo for creating and maintaining this market, wish that result were more impactful than this quant aggression about the literal definitions and opportunities for against the odds fake money profits.
Assange already did!
It not a technicality!
This market is no less misresolved than if I made one about prime numbers and resolved it NA because I thought a number was prime, despite having its factors in front of me and knowing how to multiply.
It's no less misresolved than if I made a market about whether an event would happen in Australia and resolved it NA because the event in question happened in Jervis Bay Territory.
(Not a weird edge case! That's Australia! This is not difficult!).
I don't care about the tiny amounts of mana involved in this market, which I got back anyway, but it's really dumb that a market like this has to resolve NA and I'm compelled to argue the point: don't do this again in future! This is bad!
I'm all in favour of not resolving markets grossly contrary to expectations due to unanticipated technicalities. I've been a loud flag-waver for this idea throughout my time on Manifold. But this isn't that! There isn't any argument for it other than the creator's knowledge of geography! Which he is to be forgiven for, of course, but not for letting it affect how he resolves his markets once he has the facts. It's very silly and I think creators should be better than that.
@chrisjbillington Damn bro, like you've never made a questionable market resolution? No need to come down this hard, just move on. Being on the leaderboard is getting to y'all heads.
@Predictor This isn't meant as further criticism of Chris's resolution decision, but just an answer to your question.
I think if you were to check, you would find that the opposite of your premise is true - if I treated my own resolution record as the bar I judged others by, it would be an unreasonably high standard and it would be unkind of me to hold others to it.
(especially when they create a lot more markets than me)
Since I'm betting and arguing obviously I should have no say as a mod, so others can decide.
From the outside, it looks very odd to be picking what parts of the US count. It looks the same as if you had decided to exclude Hawaii or Alaska, or had forgotten that they were part of the US, or something like that. On what basis would you want to exclude the NMI? Just because it wasn't on your radar doesn't mean it's not the US.
Again, DC isn't a state. If he'd flown by helicopter right into DC without setting foot in a US state, would that not have been in the spirit of the market either?
Happy to N/A if that's what you want -- the issue is the previous confusion in the comments (1mo ago) which may have informed betting.
i'd sooner leave out PR since its not a state honestly. i really just meant the USA, not the territories
Not great to have your mind changed now. In future, I recommend specifying "continental US", or w/e...
i'd sooner leave out PR since its not a state honestly. i really just meant the USA, not the territories
This was immediately followed by "I need a legal expert" (who would say that NMI are straightforwardly part of the US). If it was just the first comment and more definitive I get that creators should be held to the clarifications they make. But if the two comments are taken together, it also reads like Chris was wanting to follow a legal definition - it's just that he wasn't aware NMI is part of the US (and not in some unusual, legally weird way).
Im sure you would
This should have resolved NO already, Northern Mariana Islands is the United States. Anyone in other parts of the the US (citizens or people with US visas) can travel there on a domestic flight, without a passport, whereas I cannot. Not because of any special arrangement, but simply because it is part of the United States.
Anyone born there is a US citizen by birth, and can travel to or work in any other state or territory of the US just like anyone else. Again, not because of any special arrangement - but just by virtue of it being the United States.
It's not a state, but neither is DC. It's unincorporated, but until 1876 neither were Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, Montana, Dakota (not yet split into north and south at a time), Washington, Alaska, and what is now Oklahoma. Were they not part of the United States? They were - they just didn't have statehood and were administered directly by the US federal government. But if you were in Arizona in 1875, were you not in the United States? Where were you, then?
Northern Mariana Islands residents are not allowed to vote in presidential elections, because the US constitution only gives that right to residents of states. Other than DC, for which an exception was carved out in the 23rd Amendment in 1961. Was DC not part of the United States before 1961? DC still doesn't have voting representation in congress. These are quirks about statehood, not about "being part of the US".
Assange went to the US to attend a hearing of a US federal court. It wasn't a military court on a military base, it was a civilian court in the United States itself. If NMI wasn't part of the US, there wouldn't have been a court there and he would have had to go somewhere else. Presumably it being a territory and not a state meant the judges there were more amenable to having their strings pulled for diplomatic reasons, or something like that, who knows. But it's not like it was a meeting on neutral territory - he was in the United States.
Whether it was extradition or not, he set foot in the US, and pled guilty before a US federal court.
FWIW the United States Code defines:
(38) The term βUnited Statesβ, except as otherwise specifically herein provided, when used in a geographical sense, means the continental United States, Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, Guam, the Virgin Islands of the United States, and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands.
This isn't a sneaky or disputable technicality like Antarctic territory not recognised by other countries or laying claim to the moon by planting a flag there or anything like that - it's not like how people think embassies are technically part of the country whose embassy it is (they're not) - the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands is just straightforwardly part of the US.
The guilty plea, which is to be finalized Wednesday, will resolve Assange's outstanding legal matters with the U.S. government. Justice Department prosecutors recommended a prison sentence of 62 months in custody as part of the plea agreement, CBS News has learned, which is on the high end for a single-count violation. Assange would not spend any time in U.S. custody because, under the plea agreement, he'll receive credit for the approximately five years he has spent in a U.K. prison fighting extradition to the U.S.Β
this does not feel like an extradition or stepping foot in the usa in my judgement of the spirit of the market (or any of my others). does anyone else have some input
I don't know anything about the specifics of extradition, but I asked ChatGPT "If an accused criminal is transferred from the U.K. to a U.S. court in the Northern Marianias Islands, where he pleads guilty and then goes free, is that extradition to the U.S.?"
Yes, that would still be considered extradition to the U.S. The Northern Mariana Islands are a commonwealth of the United States, and legal proceedings there fall under U.S. jurisdiction. Therefore, transferring an accused criminal from the U.K. to the Northern Mariana Islands for a court appearance, even if the individual pleads guilty and is then released, constitutes extradition to the U.S.
i'd sooner leave out PR since its not a state honestly. i really just meant the USA, not the territories