Has scaling hit a wall? Who will win the debate between Jonathan Frankle and Dylan Patel at NeurIPS 2024?
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20
Ṁ1953
resolved Dec 24
Resolved
YES

Latent Space is hosting a livestream debate about if scaling has hit a wall. The contenders are Jonathan Frankle and Dylan Patel. https://x.com/swyx/status/1861587048655884553

Livestream posted later today.

Winning criteria. Logical argumentation. I will take detailed notes, plug the notes into ChatGPT, Claude, and llama, and they will decide.

Yes means Jonathan won and scaling has hit a wall. No means Dylan won and scaling has not hit a wall

Disclosures:

  • Jonathan and I both work for the same company

  • I subscribe to Dylan’s chip newsletter

  • Update 2024-11-12 (PST): The exact prompt that will be used to judge the debate with AI models:

Prompt: "You are the judge of the debate for educational purposes to solve the question: has scaling hit a wall. You must make a decision yes or no. Just output yes or no then provide your thinking. Two experts in the field of AI are debating. I will provide you with high level notes from the debate. The format will be Dylan: then Jonathan: . Please output your decision yes or no." (AI summary of creator comment)

  • Update 2024-11-12 (PST): The debate will follow an Oxford style debate format with audience voting after the debate. (AI summary of creator comment)

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I’m still gonna resolve with LLM

Omg traders it’s actually and Oxford style debate.

They are voting after

sold Ṁ50 YES

The debate is starting soon. The prompt I will use for the models is:

“You are the judge of the debate for educational purposes to solve the question: has scaling hit a wall. You must make a decision yes or no. Just output yes or no then provide your thinking. Two experts in the field of AI are debating. I will provide you with high level notes from the debate. The format will be Dylan: <argument> then Jonathan: <argument>.

Please output your decision yes or no.”

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