Will second-order optimizers displace first-order optimizers for training LLMs by 2030? | Manifold

Will second-order optimizers displace first-order optimizers for training LLMs by 2030?

Plus

24

Ṁ1684

2029

38%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Will something like Shampoo become the default instead of Adam?

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Seems possible but <50%? Why do you think it's so high?

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Will the best public LLM at the end of 2025 solve more than 5 of the first 10 Project Euler problems published in 2026?

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