Recommend me resources for learning about forecasting.
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No reward for recommending Superforecasting!

Especially interested in less obvious resources, e.g. Alex Lawsens intro series of YouTube videos (https://youtu.be/e6Q7Ez3PkOw). But more advanced than that.

Blog posts or Twitter threads by well known (super)forecasters are good.

Less interested in academic textbooks and the like, unless there are some classics that I should be aware of.

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I looked into this recently. Here are a bunch of other cool resources you might want to check out:

The Good Judgment Project: This was like the mother of all forecasting projects, run by the same folks behind Superforecasting. They often drop some gems and insights from their research.

Julia Galef's Blog and "Rationally Speaking" Podcast: While not exclusively about forecasting, she often dives into related topics, and her insights can be super helpful.

Tetlock and Mellers' "The Science of Prediction": Okay, okay, it's an academic paper, but it's basically a goldmine if you're looking to understand the mechanics of forecasting. Think of it as the CliffsNotes for Superforecasting.

Robin Hanson's Blog "Overcoming Bias": Robin's got some quirky, out-of-the-box views on prediction markets and forecasting. Definitely worth a peek.

Twitter/X: There are a bunch of superforecasters and wannabe superforecasters sharing tidbits, threads, and resources. Folks like @elipariser, @d_spiegel, and @PTetlock often drop knowledge bombs.

The "LessWrong" Community: While not purely about forecasting, they discuss everything rationality. They've got a bunch of posts that can indirectly help sharpen your forecasting skills.

Hope these lead you down some fun rabbit holes! 🚀

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This tool from Clearer Thinking can help you practice your calibration: https://openphilanthropy.org/calibration

i’m currently working on making a forecasting syllabus. if i remember to, i’ll post a bunch of resources here in a bit.

Nassim Taleb books

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