There's no shot, right? Once Trump goes down enough in the polls he has to do it, especially as his handlers gaslight him into believing "I actually won the debate. When I said they're eating the cats and the dogs, Twitter liked it very much I hear, Elon... you know, Elon is a liberal and he likes me very much so I think I'm winning this election by a lot. I think I won that debate by a lot and in reality it was STOLEN from me by the corrupt moderators...""

@StarkLN yea the pressure will mount but like he is the party now and he was so obviously embarrassed I feel, don’t know if he wants to go through that again

@StarkLN If Trump goes down enough in the polls that Harris is a strong favorite to win the election, which presumably will take some time from now, why would Harris then agree to a debate when she has nothing to gain and everything to lose?

@JakeLowery Bc the last one was a walk in the park presumably

@jBosc That’s why Harris would probably say yes today, and why Trump is an adamant NO today. If the logic is “once Trump goes down enough in the polls he has to do it”, we have to consider how both sides respond to that big change in circumstances. If it’s big enough to change Trumps mind in one direction, it is likely big enough to change the calculus for the Harris camp too, and there is no strong norm in favor of scheduling additional last minute debates that anybody will be penalized for violating.

@JakeLowery I think the issue is that Democrats tend to hold their candidate a lot more accountable. If Harris refuses a debate, I think that's a lot worse for her in equivalent situation than vice versa.

predict which news network will broadcast the second Trump/Harris debate (if it happens)

Surprised how much value people are putting on words coming out of Trump's mouth. At any point he decides a debate would be in his interest, he'll about-face in a second, with any prior statements being played off as negotiation tactics (if he even bothers playing them off at all).

There historically has almost always been 3 debates. In elections where there were only 2, the latest was held on October 13. The earliest a presidential debate even occurred at all before 2024 was on September 21. With so much time left until the election, no debate from now would be extraordinarily unusual. Harris' campaign would mercilessly bully his fragile ego if he went down that road.

Strongest NO case would be that further debates clearly won't help him, but there's no way he could ever be convinced of that. I pity the handler trying to make that case to him.

@cthor I think that about covers it

@cthor I think the extremely unusual part already happened -- a June and early September debate, circumventing the Commission on Presidential Debates, and declaring that no third debate will happen. Of course Trump contains multitudes though, so we will see!

To be clear “donald agrees to a debate” and “they have a debate” are two separate propositions, the description and headline don’t match.

@whhatisachoice yeah I think you should change the title to 'Will there be a second debate?' (as the description wins in case of conflict if they're close and these are close enough)

It’s over

plugging this:

His logic is so funny, I guess that's why when Biden got bodied in the first debate he immediately called for another debate then right?? /s

@DanielRohrer Bros like "I'm so confident I won't that refuse to even try again"

@whhatisachoice *won that I

unsure if I should resolve this to no

@whhatisachoice I would leave it open until Election Day. Trump famously changes his mind all the time.

@whhatisachoice the market can decide, man be random asl

@whhatisachoice thanks yk, will do

yeah I'd keep this open. he can change his mind til the election

Agreed. This is still trading at ~20% on most platforms.

@whhatisachoice Please do not resolve this prior to the current close date (Oct 30). TY

@whhatisachoice Unlikely but not impossible that if Harris wins, Trump (who seems to have a strong grip on the Reps) runs against her in 2028. During that campaign they could have a second debate. All this to say, there's an argument to be made that the market should stay open for four more years.

@Rian BAHAHAHHAHA SO TURE BESTIE