There are a lot of reports and speculation that China's housing market is a time bomb; a bubble waiting to burst. While it's true some major firms have experienced difficulties, I can't help but feel this is anti-China propoganda (hoping for a fall of an upcoming superpower).
Will the detractors be proved right? For resolution, I will await a major reliable news outlet (e.g. BBC news) to report that China has suffered a serious contraction of their housing market. It doesn't need the exact words bubble, but I think it should be fairly evident that something is serious. If so, this market resolves YES.
I'll refrain from betting until the community is satisfied with the resolution criteria (so please feel free to suggest changes).
1,000
1.00Market resolution criteria stated
It doesn't need the exact words bubble, but I think it should be fairly evident that something is serious.
I posted below 2 reliable sources that call it a bubble. Resolves YES, market creator does not respond.
@PeterBuyukliev agree, it's even old news, here's a third source: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2024/02/29/how-chinas-property-bubble-burst.html
Earlier this year, the received wisdom was that China’s problem was housing. A real estate building bubble burst, leaving behind enormous overcapacity and lots of overly indebted property developers, and denting household wealth in the process.
https://www.ft.com/content/18666712-24af-450b-84a7-4258e71b685d
To some extent, the economy is entering a protracted process of digesting the impacts of the bursting of the real estate bubble that had helped sustain a borrowed prosperity for more than a decade.
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202409/18/WS66ea1138a3103711928a84de.html
China Daily is the largest English-language newspaper in China. I think both FT and China Daily count as "major reliable news outlet"
@KevinFischer Yeah, so I expect whatever probability the market is in right now will price in that it wouldn't happen before 31st Dec