Will any European Country make a transition to an exclusive democracy by 2039 (Rare event market)
42%
chance

This will resolve positively if there is at least one election in which >1% of adult citizens do not have suffrage. It must happen under a new rule (I will not automatically resolve yes by looking at the Vatican).

Background:

Democracies come in all shapes and forms. For instance:

- In the Kingdom of Great Britain, there was a property qualification. Only a few thousand of man could vote.

- The US before the 19th amendment (also there were other nuances)

-Almost all democracies in Europe were exclusive when they emerged.

-Ancient ones (e.g Rome, Athens, do some googling or ask chatgpt)

Generally speaking, the contemporary form of democracy became a gold standard after the WW1 (A note: in the UK women were barred from voting until 1928 (until the 1970s in Northern Ireland).

I will add to the description based on the comment section.

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This market was possibly already resolved YES when it was created. Greece, Bulgaria and Portugal have <99% adult literacy rates; I suspect at least one of them doesn't allow the illiterate to vote.

Also, I'm almost certain that the US does not fit this criterion due to imprisoned and formerly imprisoned people. This could also be the case in some European countries.

very cool market, thank you!

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