Open Answer: What will be the (absolute) Electoral College margin in the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Basic
21
Ṁ4998Dec 21
5%
15 or fewer (0-15)
0.3%
35 or fewer (0-35)
0%
38 or fewer (0-38)
0.6%
70 or fewer (0-70)
97%
71 or more (71+)
Feel free to add answers! I will interpret a bare number like "25" as "25 or fewer".
Answers will be resolved based on the actual Electoral College votes, not electors' pledges. Unfaithful electors may impact the outcome.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
@4fa Hey, I am pretty sure of this, but could you confirm that you are defining "margin" the same way that this polymarket market defines it, rather than something like "the number of points over 270".
@BoltonBailey Yes, the winning candidate's electoral votes minus the second place's electoral votes, which should be the same as in the polymarket link.
Sorry, wrong comment thread.
Related market about the (signed) difference: https://manifold.markets/mikeangelo/what-will-be-the-electoral-college?r=TUwxMmQx
Related questions
Related questions
What will be the exact electoral college outcome in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election?
Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
How large will the popular vote margin be in the 2024 presidential election?
What will be the popular vote margin between the top two candidates in the 2024 US presidential election?
What will be the Electoral College margin in the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Open answer: How many electoral votes will the Democratic presidential candidate win in 2024?
Open answer: How many electoral votes will Trump* win in 2024?
What will be the margin of victory (in number of electors) for the 2024 US Presidential election?
What will the electoral college bias be in 2024?
What will be the margin of victory be in Arizona in the 2024 Presidential election?