What will be the popular vote margin between the top two candidates in the 2024 US presidential election?
Plus
23
Ṁ5706Dec 1
1.4%
<1,000,000
1.1%
Between 1,000,000 and 2,000,000
95%
Between 2,000,000 and 5,000,000
2%
Between 5,000,000 and 10,000,000
0.1%
>10,000,000
Update (11/7): extending market close. Current tally of popular vote difference is 4.65 million. Note (12/20/23): Results of this market have been interesting to me so far. I’m encouraging traders, if they are so inclined, to leave comments about the their thinking process.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@StevenK It would count as between 1 and 2 mil. Market is solely concerned with the difference between the two top popular vote tallies, independent of who wins the election.
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