What percentage of the pop. vote will each candidate receive in the 2024 US Presidential Election? [3350 in subsidies]
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30
Ṁ14k
Dec 6
49%
Donald Trump (R)
47%
Kamala Harris (D)
1.1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I)
0.7%
Chase Oliver (L)
0.7%
“Other”
0.9%
Jill Stein (G)
0.9%
Other

Will resolve to the exact percentages reported on Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election) at the close date, and I will extend if votes are not fully counted. Standard rounding rules apply (.5 rounds up, .49 rounds down). In this market, “Other” as named by Wikipedia to displace the remaining vote total other than named candidates, should be distinguished from Other as named by manifold which will serve as overflow bucket which remaining leftover percentage points will go after rounding occurs.

For example, the 2020 election wiki page, under Results, lists Biden, Trump, Jorgensen, Hawkins, and “Other”. If that election were the subject of this market, it would resolve as

Biden - 51%

Trump - 47%

Jorgensen - 1%

Hawkins - 0%

“Other” - 0%

Other - 1% (100-51-47-1=1)

Let me know if there are any questions. I will not bet on this market and I’ll continue to add in liquidity. I really want this to end up being precise :)

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Pretty safe to assume this will resolve to

Trump - 50

Harris - 48

Other - 2

@ChinmayTheMathGuy Yeah I’ll resolve early if possible

@ChinmayTheMathGuy Actually at the moment it would resolve 50-48-0-0-0

@PaperBoy Wait nevermind it would be 50-48-0-0-2 I forgot my own rules lol

@PaperBoy nvm I spoke too soon. Jill stein at 0.48 or something and California she's at 1% there

reposted

Kinda doubt Harris is gonna win by 10 pts in anyone wants to hop on this

I'm not familiar with this kind of market. In your example, every TRUMP YES share would resolve to being worth 47 mana, and each TRUMP NO share would resolve to being worth 53 mana?

Well 0.47 and 0.53, but yeah

Yes, it will just resolve to the percentage

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