What percentage of the vote will the third most popular candidate get in the 2024 Presidential Election?
Basic
9
Ṁ1292Dec 2
2%
<=0.1%
65%
<=1% and >0.1%
19%
<=2% and >1%
7%
<=5% and >2%
4%
<=10% and >5%
2%
>10%
Resolves based on the percentage of the popular vote that the candidate with the third highest number of votes gets.
Base-rates (collated by @LBeesley in description here /LBeesley/will-a-third-party-candidate-receiv ):
2020 - Jo Jorgensen (0 Electoral Votes, 1.87m Popular Votes, cc 1.12%)
2016 - Gary "What is Aleppo" Johnson (0 Electoral Votes, 4.49m Popular Votes, cc 3.28%)
2012 - Gary "Before What Is Aleppo" Johnson (0 Electoral Votes, 1.28m Popular Votes, cc 0.99%)
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