Will Cornel West take votes away from the two main parties by running as an independent?
Basic
3
Ṁ257Dec 5
57%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
@AlexHoltCohan Could you please clarify your resolution criteria? If West receives a single vote (popular, not electoral college), does this resolve YES? This seems to be trivially guaranteed if he doesn't pull out of the race. If OTOH you're asking whether he'll receive any electoral college vote, while not guaranteed, this is overwhelmingly unlikely. More crucially, how will you determine whether he took votes away from either party?
@NicoDelon if he get a percentage of the vote that shifts the balance of the two parties bases in a significant way like if he gets 5% and Biden and Trumps shares go down by a total of 5% or he creates voters in the way that Obama did or he consolidates a follow ing and gives it to another candidate.
Related questions
Related questions
Will an independent/third party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 election? [Swift Centre]
1% chance
How much of the popular vote will Cornel West win in the 2024 United States Presidential election?
Will a single independent candidate (barring Trump) get more than 5% of the pop vote in the 2024 US Pres election?
5% chance
Will a single independent candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US Presidential election?
5% chance
Will an Independent candidate receive 1+ electoral votes in 2024 Presidential Election?
11% chance
Will the Republican candidate for president win the plurality of the Independent vote in the 2024 election?
41% chance
Will a third party candidate receive an electoral college vote in 2024?
6% chance
Will Dean Philips run as a third party candidate in the 2024 US Presidential Election?
3% chance
Will a third-party or independent candidate win any state in the 2024 or 2028 US presidential elections?
8% chance